Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.327276 5.179266 6.126215 7.252649 8.551742 9.998510 11.727040
2025-03-09 2.895436 3.978573 5.324235 7.099660 9.358892 12.114471 15.703431
2025-03-16 2.026819 3.152979 4.696201 6.920160 9.989554 14.016415 19.626867
2025-03-23 1.624766 2.809957 4.573107 7.303514 11.322885 16.902876 25.086017
2025-03-30 1.277350 2.441201 4.309613 7.397721 12.210833 19.229268 29.982748
2025-04-06 1.010959 2.124651 4.044571 7.412703 12.938329 21.352762 34.745902
2025-04-13 0.806319 1.857154 3.795438 7.389588 13.568603 23.352283 39.461073
2025-04-20 0.726258 1.803153 3.900990 7.965912 15.214648 27.042722 47.027569
2025-04-27 0.621098 1.668644 3.828186 8.204780 16.302095 29.916687 53.514323
2025-05-04 0.542425 1.570009 3.803148 8.519169 17.540383 33.121116 60.745586
2025-05-11 0.450328 1.413279 3.627574 8.511392 18.183758 35.357882 66.521295
2025-05-18 0.354262 1.216123 3.324031 8.195249 18.204412 36.499870 70.507797
2025-05-25 0.270917 1.026972 3.004269 7.807095 18.065726 37.392460 74.222275
2025-06-01 0.221393 0.918322 2.853313 7.763409 18.608947 39.577067 80.388178
2025-06-08 0.176706 0.806728 2.668923 7.611892 18.908845 41.326254 85.889378
2025-06-15 0.160966 0.788262 2.727871 8.043594 20.487012 45.631667 96.352178
2025-06-22 0.136933 0.729128 2.659912 8.151688 21.366456 48.629022 104.542138
2025-06-29 0.114389 0.665308 2.563072 8.170049 22.043828 51.268154 112.206528
2025-07-06 0.094707 0.603497 2.456935 8.145672 22.616909 53.730947 119.670814
2025-07-13 0.091116 0.614063 2.584577 8.772080 24.772642 59.592868 134.092862
2025-07-20 0.080736 0.586646 2.580459 9.031540 26.075003 63.750954 145.359109
2025-07-27 0.072899 0.568416 2.603924 9.372800 27.606833 68.488758 158.025458
2025-08-03 0.061061 0.521126 2.512426 9.364375 28.271197 71.404950 167.160025